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 "I think there's no way around the crisis without having the Tatmadaw at the table, because they are part of the problem, and therefore they have to be part of the solution," said Elina Noor, director of Political-Security Affairs at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Engagement, she said, would ultimately be better than isolating the junta as Myanmar has a long history of being an isolated pariah state during decades of military rule.

"They have been through this before and they will withstand, if need be, if they're isolated again," Noor said.

There are further implications at play. ASEAN's credibility could be damaged if it is unsuccessful in bringing about some form of halt on the violence, or is seen as ineffective in handling the looming humanitarian crisis. The bloc has previously acted as a bridge between Southeast Asia and the rest of the international community but its value as an international partner could be in jeopardy if the crisis escalates throughout the region or if it is seen as being too cozy with the junta.

"ASEAN's ability to somehow manage the crisis in Myanmar is actually quite important," said Chong. I can imagine how European leaders and especially American leaders (would) want to distance themselves, because they probably don't want to be seen coddling violent dictators."

Does ASEAN have any power?

ASEAN is a regional group of ten Southeast Asian member states, from Myanmar in the north to Indonesia in the south. Established on the basic idea that these countries are stronger together by promoting economic growth and regional stability among its members.

If ASEAN were a country, it would be the fifth-largest economy in the world, and it has striven to boost trade between partner nations and allow for the free movement of skilled workers.

However, ASEAN has been plagued by an inability to take action on major issues it faces, such as how to deal with China's claims and expansion in the South China Sea and its dam-building along the Mekong River that runs through Southeast Asia.

 

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